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Technological Singularity: Ray Kurzweil
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[One] school of thought, promoted heavily by Ray Kurzweil, claims that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, suggesting rapid technological change in the 21st century and the singularity occurring by 2045. Kurzweil considers the advent of superhuman intelligence to be part of an overall exponential trend in human technological development seen originally in Moore’s Law and extrapolated into a general trend in Kurzweil’s own Law of Accelerating Returns.
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Ray Kurzweil justifies his belief in an imminent singularity by an analysis of history from which he concludes that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth. He calls this conclusion The Law of Accelerating Returns. He generalizes Moore's law, which describes exponential growth in integrated semiconductor complexity, to include technologies from far before the integrated circuit.
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In 2001 Kurzweil wrote an essay titled The Law of Accelerating Returns, in which he proposed a generalization of Moore's Law which forms the basis of what he called a technological singularity. Moore's Law described a exponential growth of computer processing power, and Kurzweil refined this to include technologies before the integrated circuit to advanced computer computations in the far future.
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Ray Kurzweil is an inventor and futurist, perhaps best known now for his books and lectures regarding accelerating change and the Technological Singularity. He joined the Singularity Summit 2007 via satellite. Because his work was referenced often in other speakers’ talks, he addressed some of their comments and conclusions, including a defense of double exponential growth in information technologies, rapid advances in algorithms (and therefore software), and a convergence of different technologies.
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Others, most prominently Ray Kurzweil, define the Singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress. Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue to other technologies not yet invented.
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Many believe a technological singularity is possible without adopting Singularitarianism as a moral philosophy. Although the exact numbers are hard to quantify, Singularitarianism is presently a small movement. Other prominent Singularitarians include Ray Kurzweiland Nick Bostrom.
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Ray Kurzweil