LYCOS RETRIEVER 
Payrolls: Economy
built 227 days ago
After dropping for the first time in 4 years, non-farm payrolls rebounded significantly in month of September. Not only did US companies add 110k jobs last month, but the August number was revised up from -4k to 89k. The tables have turned significantly with this release because it means that the US economy did not actually lose jobs the prior month. There was ... a big jump in average hourly earnings from 3.9 to 4.1 percent. Unfortunately, the number was not entirely dollar bullish with the payrolls in the year ended March potentially revised down by 297,000. The market is downplaying this revision because it is focused on the forward outlook for the US economy.
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Job growth continued at a healthy pace in November with US payrolls adding 132,000 positions. Economists, anticipating an economic slowdown, had forecast just 112,000 new jobs. The good news was enhanced by the fact that job estimates for September and October were revised upward by a net 42,000 jobs. The latest report buoyed the belief that if there is a recession, it will be mild. "The idea of the economy hitting a hard landing or falling into recession just doesn’t carry water when you get these kinds of unemployment reports. It’s not here now," Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial, told Marketwatch.com.
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After Friday’s payrolls release, the situation has obviously changed. The US economy now is clearly back in the eye of the storm and this couldn’t pass unnoticed for the dollar either. The US currency, on a trade-weighed basis, this morning tested the multi-year lows and ... for EUR/USD the euro life-time highs come back within striking distance. Even if the US currency managed to keep up rather well during the August financial crisis, a lot of factors now apparently are looming. The US economy might be at the eve of serious slowdown while the dollar is losing interest rate support at a very rapid pace. For the 2-year bond yields, the interest rate differential is already tilted in favor of the single currency and the debate on the depth of any Fed rate hikes will for sure be in the focus of attention going into next week’s FOMC meeting.
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Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follows these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data ... include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings.
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Employers boosted payrolls by a better-than-expected 132,000 jobs in June, enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4.5 percent. It was another sign that the economy is snapping out of a nearly yearlong sluggish spell.
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![[unemployment rate]](http://retrieverimages.lycos.com/images/p/a/y/payrolls/i/013.gif)
The market has seen "a couple of weak payrolls [reports] in a row. … People need to really assess whether the lack of job growth can be entirely attributed to productivity gains and to a movement of jobs overseas, or whether it's actually a sign that the economy is not rebounding as strongly as other economic indicators have implied."
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