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Nato Enlargement: West Europe
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USIP Opposition to NATO enlargement resides solely in the Russian foreign policy establishment. Recent public opinion polls in Russia suggest that the majority of the Russian people are not anxious about NATO's decision to add new members. In fact, many have yet to even form an opinion, and others have indicated that NATO enlargement is simply not an issue of concern. The Russian foreign policy elite, composed primarily of members of the Soviet foreign policy establishment, have been deliberately deceptive on this issue. Many claim that enlargement will strengthen the positions of those who are the main enemies of the West. Dr. Brzezinski contended that Russian leaders are playing a deceitful game by telling the West that they do not consider NATO enlargement a threat, but that the Russian public is amok with anxiety and fear.
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The aversion of the "Russian bear" to the enlargement of NATO has only increased since the determined action of NATO forces in Bosnia. Already during the Gulf War, Russian leading circles had been anything but happy about the spectacular display of Western military technology; this time... they watched the employment of high-precision weapons, with which the Serb politicians were forced to the negotiating table in the end, with special anxiety. The Bosnian war was fought close to the territory of Russia, and Moscow felt it had an interest in the area. Indeed, it had supported Serbia for months or even years despite the UN embargo. With its bombing raids in Bosnia, Yeltsin declared, the organization had shown what it was capable of doing. "NATO was inclined to bomb first and calculate the losses suffered by the civilian population only afterward", he noted, adding that in such circumstances the enlargement of NATO would be a grave political mistake involving the danger of "engulfing the whole of Europe in flames".
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Despite NATO's commitment to an open door policy concerning further accessions, the enlargement of NATO- unless Russia is eventually invited to join -will likely create new dividing lines in Europe. At a minimum, these will be institutional dividing lines. On the West side will be NATO members, current and new, who, under Article V of the Washington Treaty, will receive nuclear and conventional security guarantees. On the other side of that institutional line will be those European nations not invited to join the Alliance. This dividing line issue is, probably, one of the strongest arguments against enlargement.
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[T]he September 11 attacks bolster the case for NATO enlargement because they bolster the case for NATO in general, particularly in the United States. When the cold war ended in 1989, many observers questioned whether NATO had a future with its original mission gone. The Balkan wars of the 1990s largely answered that question, showing that American military power, U.S.-Europe solidarity, and inter-operable NATO forces were still critically important to ensuring stability and security on the continent. Today, the political and military solidarity of NATO countries in the aftermath of an attack on the United States further demonstrates the importance of a strong and integrated Alliance. The decision next year to include in that Alliance all those European democracies willing and able to accept the responsibilities of membership will be an important addition not just to Europe's security, but to America's own.
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One reason for Russia's past oppositon to NATO enlargement: a certain hesitation in the Western aproach to this issue. Many in Russia have interpreted it as a recognition of some sort of remnant of the Iron Curtain, a reluctance to enter territory once under their domination. Russia's disapproval is encouraged by Western hesitation. These are unconscious remnants of Cold War thinking. The new situation and challenges are different:
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NATO enlargement, primarily a German-USA initiative, is a process not a single event. The Madrid invitation is the first phase to that process-some would say the easiest phase. Nine other countries have applied and some of these are likely to be invited at the 1999 Summit. Indeed, NATO leaders confirmed that the Alliance remains open for any European country that meets NATO's standards for democracy and peaceful relations with its neighbours.
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