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Nato Enlargement: Costs
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NATO enlargement has generated a great deal of debate, particularly in the US, largely... far, among academics and former diplomats. Some argue that the enlargement issue is a low-cost, low-risk initiative which will reduce tensions, promote stability and improve the security environment throughout Europe. Others assert that the initiative is ill-conceived, ill-timed and above all, ill-suited to the realities of the post-Cold War, and will end up creating new dividing lines across Europe and alienate Russia. George Kennan, the noted American scholar, has argued that enlargement "would be the most fateful error of American policy in the whole post-Cold War era."
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Two other organizations, the RAND Corporation and the Congressional Budget Office... developed cost estimates for NATO enlargement. Like the Pentagon's February 1997 study, the RAND Corporation also used a capabilities-based approach to develop notional cost estimates based on two categories: improving self-defense capabilities of new members and NATO power projection. RAND's analysis resulted in an estimate of approximately $42 billion in total costs over an unspecified 10-15 year period. In broad terms, the RAND methodology and cost estimates are compatible with the Administration's study.
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The U.S. share of common-funded NATO enlargement costs will be the standard U.S. share, about 25 percent ($400 million over ten years). For FY99, these costs will be affordable within DoD's planned budget. In FY00-01, DoD expects to request $5-12 million above current budget levels for NATO common-funded military budgets to cover projected enlargement costs. DoD projects that this figure will increase to $32 million in FY02.
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This report, dealing with NATO enlargement, is extremely timely. As final decisions are fairly close at hand, certain practical aspects of the enlargement, including the question of its costs, have now moved to the forefront of public debate.
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NATO enlargement will be expensive, and the allies show no willingness to share the costs. The Administration once estimated the costs to be $27-35 billion over 12 years, but other estimates range as high as $60-125 billion.
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