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Moore's Law
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Moore's Law wasn't some scientific formula worked out on a white board or a deep insight that arose from years of study. Moore just did a little extrapolation for an article about the future that he probably thought would be forgotten within two weeks.
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While this time horizon for Moore's Law scaling is possible, it does not come without underlying engineering challenges. One of the major challenges in integrated circuits that use nanoscale transistors is increase in
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A well-known rule about doing business in technology is that nobody ever bet against Moore's law and won. It is a rule proven true a thousand times each year. Over the last 40 years, a score of brave and brilliant, but foolhardy, companies have tried to get ahead of the law: Trilogy Systems and MicroUnity with their superchips and IBM with X-ray lithography. All have failed, often spectacularly, losing billions of dollars in the process.
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One should note that any of these claims might be right, independent of the fact that they historically misrepresent Moore's Law. Moreover, although the logic may be disconnected between any two steps in the chain of extensions from component counts to new economy, any of the claims might still be empirically valid. It is therefore interesting to see to what extent this is the case.
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[W]e have increased the size and complexity of software even faster than Moore's Law. In fact, this is why there is a market for faster processors -- software people have always consumed new capability as fast or faster than the chip people could make it available."
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Abetting this single-minded chase were the venture capitalists, themselves fixated on Moore's law because of the simplicity of its arithmetic compared to the messy, unpredictable human side of business. And egging on the whole delusion were the stock markets and their millions of investors, willing to award the most impossible price/earnings ratios to those startups aiming at the most distant point of the law's trajectory.
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Moore's Law