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Moore's Law
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Moore's Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to forecast accelerating price-performance ratios. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to [Newman's] relay-based "[Heath] Robinson" machine that cracked the [Nazi Lorenz cipher], to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer.[24]
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An alternative simple test for Moore's Law would be to see whether the number of transistors actually have been doubling every 18 months or every two years. One would expect that many people who refer to Moore's Law would have done this exercise. Actually, it seems to have been done relatively rarely. Indeed, one of the few exceptions is a comment written by Brenner (2001). It notes that a figure published in an earlier Physics Today article (Birnbaum and Williams, 2000) shows a doubling time of about 26 months, whereas the caption text claims that "Moore's Law is the empirical observation that the number of transistors on a single integrated-circuit chip increases by a factor of four every three years," implying that the data shows doubling time of 18 months.
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[T]hen Netscape, the epitome of a Moore's law company, ran into the marketing meat grinder of Microsoft and was left on the slaughterhouse floor. Shortly after that, Netscape was snapped up by that other marketing-over-innovation giant, America Online. Mr. Andreessen put in his time with Case & Company in northern Virginia, but by 1999 was back in the Valley, this time at a new startup called LoudCloud, a Web-based managed services company.
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"Moore's Law is why . . . smart people start saving for the next computer the day after they buy the one they have. . . Things are changing so fast that everyone's knowledge gets retreaded almost yearly. Thank you, Mr. Moore. . . [for] the internet, a creature of Moore's Law. . ." (Hettinga 1996)
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[T]hat's it. That's what became Moore's Law. The only difference is that in 1965, he said power would double every year. In 1975, Moore updated it to say power would double every two years.
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Moore's Law is increasingly used as a metaphor or label for anticipated rates of rapid change -- not only in semiconductors, but in broader contexts. The source of this change is technological, but the effects of it are economic and social. In this very complex arrangement, Moore acknowledges that Moore's Law "gives us a short-hand to talk about things."
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