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Moore's Law: Technologies
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: System integration using system-on-package (SOP) technology from Georgia Tech's Microsystems Packaging Research Center will see "More Than Moore's Law" take hold, as measured by component density. From about 50 components per square centimeter in 2004, component density will climb to about a million per square centimeter by 2020. Functional system density will escalate similarly.
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It has been shown that none of the variants of Moore's Law actually fit the data very well (the price curves within DRAM generations perhaps come closest). Nevertheless, Moore's Law is constantly invoked to set up expectations about the next generation of computing technology. See ... Parkinson's Law of Data and Gates's Law.
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Almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is linked to Moore's Law: processing speed, memory capacity, even the resolution of LCD screens and digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This has dramatically changed the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy.[5] Moore's Law describes this driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
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"Today, with circuits containing 218 (262,144) elements available, we have not yet seen any significant departure from Moore's law. Nor are there any signs that the process is slowing down, although a deviation from exponential growth is ultimately inevitable. The technology is still far from the fundamental laws of physics: further miniaturization is less likely to be limited by the laws of physics than by the laws of economics."
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From the use of nanoscale materials for flash memory to making new designs for transistors, the amazing advances in computer technology have largely been made possible by Moore's Law. But it can't go on forever--or can it?
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His forward-looking article has for years been widely acknowledged as Moore's Law, one of the great benchmarks of faith in technological innovation as an engine of economic growth. It's ... widely misunderstood.
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