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Moore's Law: Technologies
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Beginning as a simple observation of trends in semiconductor device complexity, Moore's Law has become many things. It is an explanatory variable for the qualitative uniqueness of the semiconductor as a base technology. It is now recognized as a benchmark of progress for the entire semiconductor industry. And increasingly it is becoming a metaphor for technological progress on a broader scale. As to explaining the real "causes" of Moore's Law, this examination has just begun. For example, the hypothesis that semiconductor device users' expectations feed back and self-reinforce the attainment of Moore's Law (see Figure 1) is still far from being validated or disproved.
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While this time horizon for Moore's Law scaling is possible, it does not come without underlying engineering challenges. One of the major challenges in integrated circuits that use nanoscale transistors is increase in parameter variation and leakage currents. As a result of variation and leakage, the design margins available to do predictive design are becoming harder. Such systems ... dissipate considerable power even when not switching. Adaptive and statistical design along with leakage power reduction is critical to sustain scaling of CMOS. A good treatment of these topics is covered in Leakage in Nanometer CMOS Technologies.
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[S]ystem software, the third piece of this puzzle, begins to reveal the non-technical dimension of Moore's Law. In the early days of computing when internal memory was costly and scarce, system software practices had to fit this limitation -- limited memory meant efficient use of it or "tight" code. With the advent of semiconductor memory -- especially with metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) technology -- internal memory now obeyed Moore's Law and average PC memory sizes grew at an exponential rate. Thus, system software was no longer constrained to "tight spaces" and the proliferation of thousands, then many thousands, and now millions of "lines of code" have become the norm for complex system software.
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If history is any guide, Moore's law will transcend CMOS silicon and jump to a different substrate. It has done so five times in the past. In his forthcoming book, The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil traces the historical exponential capability curves for a variety of technologies. The exponential curve of computational power extends smoothly back in time to 1890, long before the invention of the semiconductor. Since 1910, through five paradigm shifts like electromechanical calculators and vacuum tube computers, the processing power that $1,000 buys has doubled, on average, every two years. For the past 30 years, it has been doubling every year.
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"With each new semiconductor process generation, something challenges the ability of Moore's Law to continue delivering the performance benefits that the industry has come to expect," said Dr. Mears. "Clearly, the issue of transistor static power is one of the most pressing concerns facing IC manufacturers today, particularly at 65 nm, 45 nm and beyond. We're delighted that SEMI is giving us the opportunity to educate the audience at SEMICON West and explain how MST for CMOS technology can quickly and cost-effectively increase semiconductor performance and efficiency and reduce static power with virtually no impact to the fab line."
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"The introduction of the ServerWorks CIOB-E once again demonstrates how Moore's Law reshapes markets. It used to be easy to tell the difference between server suppliers and communications system suppliers. Now, as Gigabit Ethernet moves into server core logic, these markets will converge. Participants that lack the IP resources and technology to combine these capabilities will find themselves at a disadvantage going forward."
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