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Inflation: Rise
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The textbook model and aggregate measures of inflation imply a smooth, uniform rise of the general price level. But in fact, inflation moves through relative price changes across industries. In some sectors, such as energy, the rise and fall in prices can be mercurial. Only in the aggregate do rises in the general price level appear even and regular over time.
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The most fateful results of inflation derive from the fact that the rise of prices and wages which it causes occurs at different times and in a different measure for various kinds of commodities and labor. Some classes of prices and wages rise more quickly and rise higher than others. Not merely inflation itself, but its unevenness, works havoc.
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"By the end of next year we predict food inflation will be running well over five per cent," adds Mr. Rubin. "As ethanol production rises to nine billion gallons in 2009, food inflation will approach seven per cent, its highest level in more than 25 years."
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