LYCOS RETRIEVER
College Football Rankings: Teams
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One of the feel-good stories of last year, as movie reviewers always say, was the discovery that maybe Joe Paterno wasn't ready for the dustbin of college football history quite yet. It's amazing how good players can make a coach seem smarter, and Paterno has a lot of them back this year. Wide receiver Derrick Williams may be Papa Joe's fastest player ever, and fellow wideout Deon Butler isn't exactly a slowpoke. The offense will have a different look with dropback artist Anthony Morrelli at quarterback instead of the elusive Michael Robinson and tailback Tony Hunt probably getting the ball more, but the key could be the Nittany Lions' ability to reload on the offensive line. Linebacker Paul Posluszny, a first-team All-American last season, returns at linebacker, but the rest of the defense will be somewhat inexperienced. Will the Paterno Revival Tour continue?
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Before the college football season began, a computer system known as BCS mechanically ranked all of the college football teams in the country. The top eight schools are the most important rankings of all. Throughout the season, as teams win or lose and up-to-date statistics are achieved, they are inputted into the system, and the rankings change accordingly. At the end of the season, the final rankings are shown, based on the BSC system. Various bowl games are played to determine which schools are ranked in No. 1, No. 2, etc., in the final rankings. This year, Missouri, which was No. 1 the last week of the year, lost a game and moved back.
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This article demonstrates the fluctuation in rankings on a weekly basis in college football during the 2006 football season. The team voted number one in the final AP and Coaches Polls can claim the title of National Champion. The BCS Rankings and Harris Poll do not vote in a final poll as their sole purpose is to determine who plays in the BCS National Championship Game. Other polls exist and may vote for different schools which causes confusion, especially for split titles. But generally, only the AP and Coaches Polls are used in crowning the National Champion.
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The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results ... provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage. These results may be of interest to the Bowl Championship Series in choosing which teams to play in the national championship game. The results also show, however, that none of the systems, including the optimal combination, contains any useful information that is not in the final Las Vegas point spread. It is argued in the paper that this is a fairly strong test of the efficiency of the college football betting market.
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College football is a game of tradition, but when does stodgy old tradition get in the way? It seems like the Rose Bowl, for instance, cost itself a better game by choosing Illinois (from the Big 10) to meet USC (from the Pac 10), as opposed to a team from another conference.
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Last season's national college championship again proved that the most talented football team does not always win the big game. It wasn't that the Florida Gators were without gifted players on both sides of the ball; it was simply that Ohio State appeared, at least on paper, to hold the stronger hand. But then those two mysterious characters that don't make their presence known until the opening kickoff -- momentum and emotion -- emerged. Suddenly the Buckeyes' Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Troy Smith, became almost ordinary, and Florida quarterback Chris Leak displayed a calm and confidence that had not been consistently present earlier in his collegiate career. And the Buckeyes got blown out.
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